Will the future of computing be red?
China for the first time has surpassed America to export the most technology wares around the world, according to new figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The crossover took place last year, when China exported $180 billion of computers, mobile phones and other digital stuff, exceeding America's international sales of $149 billion. A year earlier, in 2003, China's technology exports had overtaken those of both the European Union and Japan. from The Economist (subscription based service)
posted by SAM @ 12/16/2005 06:09:00 PM
2 Comments:
Not necessarily, I think. Unfortunately I couldn't read the entire article (subscription based:)))) but the post speaks only about "hardware" : computers, cell phones, all sorts of digital gadgets I suppose. So it looks like it concerns only the production process of this "hardware" finally, which can no longer be done in the Western countries because of the high cost, therefore it is outsourced in China. But since the scope of the IT nowdays expands far beyond producing hardware, the "Western world" concentrates (or should concentrate) on developing and strengthening the know-how they acquired over the past 20-30 years in the field of IT engineering and R&D (to give very few examples : IT services, Urbanisation of Informational Systems, Enterprise Ressource Planning Software, etc.). This is their strength in the field and IMHO the most important thing in IT today. It's not about the computer, but about what you can do with it and the money you get out of using it. The fun part is that less you know about computers and more you know about Microsoft Office, more money you make. And be vigilent about keeping it safe. As the Priests are saying in Warhammer 40,000: "Knowledge is power, hide it well.":)))
Sorry guys, just read this entry and comment now.
Dan, I think it's not that simple (but haven't read that Economist article entirely either). I'll try to make a more elaborate argument in my blog and maybe in some article in one of the Romanian newspapers somewhere in the near future but for now take a look at the following figures that indicate that China is really ready to take over in software developping and engineering as well,not just hardware or services (and basic and applied sciences in fact, beyond IT). Basically they trained (and continue to train) more engineers than anybody else in the world in the last few years. In the Science edition from the 2nd of Dec 2005, Frank Wolfe, the US congressman that decides the amounts of all funds allocated to science in US (and he is the biggest lobbier for large amounts), states that China is turning 500,000 enginners a year, compared to the 70,000 engineers graduating in USA. India is midway, but still a great "threat" (in Wolfe's view) for the USA supremacy in sciences, with 350,000 a year. Anything else is below USA... Further, in the Science edition of the 9th of December 2005, Shirley Ann Jackson, the President and Chairman of the Board of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), states that the number of science and engineering DOCTORATES granted increased between 1986 and 1999 (and even more after 99)- and now pay attention to the numbers-: 400% in South Korea, 500% in Taiwan and, attention, 5400% (not a mistake) in China. 54 times! These guys are not playing. And bear in mind that these people are not joking with granting the doctorates (as sadly Romanians used to do in past and recent years and fortunately they will cease this habit but who knows...), the technical domains in China are studied and research in all depths (inter alia, this is why the top students or PhD's from China can fare so well in USA and EU top places).
So the future might not be red (since China is economically diverting from what "red" used to mean in this context) but it does look very much mandarin :-).
That is not to say that I do not believe in comparative advantage; as you might have learnt until now I am really an advocate of this corroborated with free trade (but done properly). I think USA and EU have both some know-how that they can exploit further and use as comparative advantage towards the fast emerging know-how nations of China and India, to mention just the ones perceived as most "dangerous". Goes without saying that I mean danger between "" and I don't think we should fear the apocalypse. Au contraire, there's finally a good moment to go back to old and wise Ricardo and understand and apply well his comparative advantage theory.
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