Bate un vint din Iran...
Un fost ofiter al US Marine Corps (The Adventures of Chester: Sinking Feeling) ne ofera o evaluare a viitorului relatiilor vestului cu Iranul. Pariul lui este ca vom avea un razboi cu Iranul in urmatoarele 12 luni. Teoria asta se vehiculeaza de ceva vreme si noul presedinte iranian (care pare a fi intr-o ureche) nu ne da motive sa fim optimisti...
My spider senses are twitching about Iran. I sense a disturbance in the force. Several reports, from different sources -- Strategic Forecasting, the Turkish press, and now RegimeChangeIran -- are all hinting at windows of opportunity that are closing: for the US or Israel to stop Iran's nuclear program, or for Iran to exploit the situation in Iraq to its advantage before democracy takes root. Pundits are all worked up debating whether 2006 will be like 1994. Perhaps a better comparison might be 1914. Things might get hairy awful fast in the mid-east. Iran is not just another country; it is an entire Persian civilization with a long history of conquest from Darius and Cyrus fighting the Greeks, to the Sasanians, the Safavids, and the modern state. The prediction markets currently have a 36% chance of a US or Israeli airstrike on Iran by March of 07. I plan to keep a close eye on these numbers. Here's what I expect in the next 12 months. -There will be airstrikes upon Iranian facilities by either the US or Israel. -There will be catastrophic, if not cataclysmic, terror attacks in various parts of the Middle East, sponsored by Iran or its proxies; The Gulf States, Jordan, Israel, and Iraq are potential targets."
posted by SAM @ 1/07/2006 03:17:00 AM
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